Eliot,
Here’s a link to a post Chris wrote regarding pilot pay which details things quite well: https://airlinepilot.life/t/what-do-pilots-really-earn/16495
Problem comes when you start talking about “returns on investment”. As with any investment nothing is guaranteed or written in stone. If your career follows a somewhat normal track and you eventually end up at a Major as a Capt making over $350k I think most people would agree that would be a solid return. But what if you don’t? The fact is not everyone can or should be an airline pilot. I have no reason to believe you wouldn’t be successful and no it’s not rocket science but it does require a certain amount of skill, intelligence and coordination. Bust enough checkrides and that could seriously affect your career path. Do something really stupid (either professionally or personally) and that too could derail things. Finally you could do everything right and for some reason you simply might not get the nod to the Majors. While most are successful many are not. If that were the case only you could decide if it was a bad return? I started older and frankly never thought I’d make it to a Major. I was fortunate that I did but really I would’ve been fine (albeit not living as well) had I not. I have a job that I love and that made the investment worth it for me.
Adam