Hey all. I’ve had this kicking around in my head and I’m curious what those of you currently in the industry think. I’m training for my CFI and plan to move on to CFII after that in the hopes of being able to teach full time. I cannot help but wonder what the industry at the regional level will look like in 2 years. I know that no one has a crystal ball, but for conversation sake, lets say the regionals are still hiring the way they are after 18 months and economy is still in a decent spot. Won’t the regional market be oversaturated with pilots? Endeavor classes are already full through August and they have paused their hiring because they have hired enough pilots for the year and they need to give their training staff a break. If they have hired enough pilots for the year over 3-4 months, other regionals will have to follow suit?
I understand the majors will be losing thousands of pilots due to attrition, however, regional FO’s can only log hours and move up to captain so fast. I don’t see 1 yr regional FO’s going to a major either through a flow or other means. I can’t see this ending real well if the hiring continues the way its going and I expect to see a furlough in 3 or 4 years because of overstaffing at the regionals. I hope my thinking is wrong because I would be in a bad spot in 2.5 years when I’m ready to move on from instructing. Whether you are in the industry or not I would really like to get your thoughts on this.