Earlier this year I made the decision to chase my dreams of becoming a pilot. My only concern is that it looks like it’ll be a little over two years from now until I make it to regionals. The way things are now in aviation and the downward spiral of pilot hiring expected to take place over the next few years, im nervous if my goals of making it to the major airlines would still be possible. I would hate to change careers to end up in a position where it’s hard to find work. Just looking on any insight on what anyone with experience see’s where the industry is headed.
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Jay,
I understand your concerns, but I think they are based own some real misconceptions. Pilot hiring at the majors its supposed to peak in two years, but that does not mean that things grind to a halt after that. Along those lines, when people say “the shortage is ending”, they mean that we are returning to a time of normal hiring. The past few years have been unprecedented, people were being hired on the spot without the normal interview process. That is not how this industry normally works and quite frankly, I am not sure it was great for the airlines. We are slowly returning to normalcy, but that by no means means that there is an end to the hiring, it is just slowing and you might actually need to be competitive for a job again. When Adam and I got hired, there was no shortage, but the airlines still hired to replace retiring pilots and we both got jobs at the regionals and then the majors. It took a little longer then and the interviews were more thorough, but pilot hiring never stopped and it will not in the future either. The breakneck pace will slow and where the jobs are might shift around some, but hiring will continue.
In times like this, the quality of your training, your training record and how you build your flight time matter more than ever.
Chris
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Jay,
Let’s not be overly dramatic ok? Sure, the pilot shortage has cooled some but it’s far from a “downward spiral”. Know when I started my flight training? 2003. Know what happened less than 2yrs prior? 9/11. Know how many pilots were still out on furlough? Thousands. Probably not the best time to change careers. Thing is NOTHING stays the same. Good times become bad and bad become good, but most of the time everything is somewhere in between.
There is literally no way to predict what will be when you’re ready to enter the job market (and anyone who says they know for certain doesn’t). BUT if the only reason you’re doing this is because you think (thought) getting a job would be easy, you’re doing it for the wrong reason. When (not if) the tough times come (furlough, downgrade, airline merger, shutdown, financial crash, terrorism, etc etc etc) you’ll be sorry you made the move.
If however you believe you’d be happy flying airplanes, do well and work hard there will always be opportunities.
Your call…
Adam
Jay,
I agree with Adam a “cooling off” is a bit more accurate of a term to be used right now. If boeing didn’t have so many issues with the 737 max production, I believe it would have hardly cooled off at all this year.
So what does that mean for you and for others going through flight school now? There is still more to come! All of the planned retirements over the next 10 years will still keep the class dates open. Then when the 737’s (and 787’s) start arriving on the line that will create a lot of movement as well for the airlines with purchase orders.
Hannah
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Jay,
So, you just started training this year? You still have to build the 1,500 hours that are required under 61.159 in order to be an applicant for the Airline Transport Pilot certificate. Let’s use a whole number, two years. Right now, things are on a “freeze” or as Adam said best, “cooling off” from the massive pilot hiring in 2022 due to retirees and early leaves due to the pandemic that struck the world. Analytics from Boeing (and yes, I trust this document) project there are going to be a need of over 1 million jobs throughout the industry by 2030.
Maybe a quick reality check if you’re spooked by this slowdown is required? The aviation industry is probably one of the most volatile in the world. Overnight, everything can change. It did in 2001 when 9/11 happened. It did in 2008 during the recession. You, me, the experts, can’t predict what will exactly happen in the future. The best part about it is the journey that you embark when you do tackle the risk of what is next. Sometimes that little “why” behind something makes you want to dig deeper into it. I think you should re-evaluate if you’re serious about becoming an airline pilot.
If you’re sticking through this negative energy that you seem to have about the current hiring situation, remember that how you tackle training, completing checkrides, and network is a great way to get you a gig. All of the mentors (minus myself) are at a Legacy, do I fear I will be stuck at a Regional forever, no. Statistics and analytics show that there will again be a need for pilots are retirements MUST happen - and they’re still retiring at age 65.
Brady
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Where do you recommend training to take place? Have you heard of ATP?
Not sure if this is a joke?
If you look up and to the left you’ll clearly see the ATP logo. This forum was created by ATP and all the mentors are former students who graduated from the program and went on to successful careers as airline pilots.
Suffice to say yes, we’ve all heard of AND recommend ATP.
Adam
S,
I’d like to think we all have heard of ATP…
Brady
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I didn’t know that 
thanks
I didn’t know thanks
Hi Chris, I am considering making a career shift to be an Airline Pilot but I have been diagnosed with Bipolar disorder and am in treatments and taking medication. I would like to know the chances, if there’s any and how likely would I be able to get my 1st class medical certificate?
Huynh,
That’s a question ONLY an AME (Aviation Medical Examiner) can answer. I suggest you get a consult and they can tell you what you can do.
Adam
Huynh,
In addition to Adam’s response:
Brady
This piggy backs off the concept of this question, is it worth getting a degree in aviation before pursuing a job as a commercial pilot? My understanding through ATP is that after completing the program you have the knowledge, hours, and licenses required to work a commercial job. For most universities, it seems that you get a fair amount of knowledge and a degree with some hours. Ideally I would like to just do ATP and start flying as soon as I could but I’m curious to know how much having the degree could impact by chances at being hired. I know that this is not something that can be 100% predicted well, especially 2 years out, but if anyone had some insight, it would be greatly appreciated.
Chandler,
This is one of our top FAQs and there are literally dozens of threads on the subject.
Long short while the Major airlines don’t require a degree, they 100% prefer one, and virtually all list a 4yr degree as a “preferred” or “competitive” requirement. The fact is the vast majority of pilots at the Majors have a degree and if you’re up against another candidate who has one they’ll get the nod before you.
Is it possible to get hired without a degree? Sure but your odds increase dramatically if you have one.
Adam
Chandler,
9/10 we always recommend getting a college degree; however, there are a few instances we recommend another route. While you don’t give us enough detail to provide a recommended route, I will assume you’re in nearing the end of high school era. Sometimes we don’t know what we want to pursue in life, for me, I was set when finishing high school to go for accounting, so I decided to attend a 4-year program at a university. Some individuals don’t and after attending a “name-brand” school, I question would my tuition have been lower at a community college and could I have received the same quality (or maybe better) education from smaller classes. Ultimately, it comes down to you and what you want to do. I think attending at minimum a community college (or university) and acquiring at least the associates is okay, but don’t hold back from getting the bachelor’s.
We’re coming to a time where major/legacies aren’t even looking at applicants unless they have some TPIC (turbine pilot-in-command) time and degrees. While there is a chance the hiring wave won’t be as full force as it was post-covid 2022, it will resume - to what degree, we don’t know.
Hindsight, quick overview, get a college degree, find attend an accelerated program, and build your hours in quality fashion.
Brady
Chandler,
9/10 we always recommend getting a college degree; however, there are a few instances we recommend another route. While you don’t give us enough detail to provide a recommended route, I will assume you’re in nearing the end of high school era. Sometimes we don’t know what we want to pursue in life, for me, I was set when finishing high school to go for accounting, so I decided to attend a 4-year program at a university. Some individuals don’t and after attending a “name-brand” school, I question would my tuition have been lower at a community college and could I have received the same quality (or maybe better) education from smaller classes. Ultimately, it comes down to you and what you want to do. I think attending at minimum a community college (or university) and acquiring at least the associates is okay, but don’t hold back from getting the bachelor’s.
We’re coming to a time where major/legacies aren’t even looking at applicants unless they have some TPIC (turbine pilot-in-command) time and degrees. While there is a chance the hiring wave won’t be as full force as it was post-covid 2022, it will resume - to what degree, we don’t know.
Hindsight, quick overview, get a college degree, find attend an accelerated program, and build your hours in quality fashion.
Brady
I started the program in June. I’m currently in the instrument stage at ATP.
I’m a bit unsure if I should get my commercial and possibly find a job and start building hours, or should I go though CFI and get a job as an instructor.
I never been looking forward the teaching part and I would rather just gain my hours by flying small planes until eligible to move with skywest.
I’m currently in the cadet program, trying to decide what would be the most efficient and practical way to get to 1500
Mikhail,
Totally your call but I would give this ALOT of thought.
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by not completing your training and instructing you may invalidate your Cadet agreement with SkyWest. Id check that out before you even consider the move.
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there aren’t a whole lot of flying jobs for pilots with 250hrs due to insurance requirements. Do you have one line up? If not what makes you think that’s an option? Then if the job you found doesn’t work out then what? If you browse the forum you’ll find LOTS of pilots who did what you propose only to find it wasn’t what they thought (or get fired) who then want to return to the program to get their CFIs, can’t and their careers completely unravel.
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it’s not just about the quantity of hours, it’s the quality. Getting hired by a Regional is easy. Getting through newhire training is not. Washout rates are at an all time high. Know why? Because too many new pilots get jobs sitting right seat or flying VFR, get their 1500hrs but have done nothing to build their skills. The airlines expect you at 1500hrs to be a very skilled instrument pilot. If you’re not you’re out. Flight instructing hones your skills. Slinging gear and loading bags doesn’t.
Again your call but something to think very seriously about.
Adam
Thank you for the usual great and fast response
I truly appreciate it.
I will give it a serious thought, the thing is that I keep hearing really bad stories or really good stories about CFI. My biggest worry it’s not be able to get a job. I never been a good teacher and would rather go through CFI but do less teaching and more flying